Brutal New Poll Shows Trump Losing Big to Biden, Even With Third Party Spoiler
Brutal New Poll Shows Trump Losing Big to Biden, Even With Third Party Spoiler
Vote every time. Polls mean nothing. Vote.
Yep. Polls are getting less reliable anyway, because so many of them rely on landlines, and some segments of the population are less likely to respond to surveys than others.
Which is telling, because the land line polls tend to over inflate Conservative voices, and it still has Trump losing in a landslide.
From the article:
Interviews were conducted in English, and included 319 live landline telephone interviews, 480 live cell phone interviews, and 111 online surveys via a cell phone text
But you are right on polls not really meaning that much. Especially over a year away.
Also, national polls mean nothing. We don't have a national election.
Trump lost in 2016 by 2.1%, he became President by winning in WI, MI and PA. 2 states Clinton failed to campaign in and a 3rd she alienated.
The total number of votes that elected Trump were just 22,748 in WI, 10,704 in MI and 44,292 in PA.
77,744 people made Trump a President. The rest of us knew better.
Trump became president because the Russian state interfered in our elections. Full stop.
I agree except for that last point
77,744 people made Trump a President. The rest of us knew better.
Sorry but that's not how math works. 63 million people made trump president, and only 66 million of us knew better. That huge number of trump voters is the horrible reality of American politics weve had to come to terms with. Luckily some of the trump supporters learned from their mistake, but there's still millions of them out there, not <100k
I mean, pollsters actually do account for how elections work in their models. There are all sorts of actual reasons polls have failed to be reliable lately, but if you think it's because they just count total responses across the country, that isn't the case.
Serious question, which state she alienated and how?
Absolutely! If polls were deciding the outcome, Hilary would win in 2016.
Only twice in three elections. This means Trump had a one third chance to win that election. Which, sadly, he did.
If the weather forecast says 30% chance of rain and it rains do you question the validity of the forecast or do you think "I guess I ended up getting some of that rain"?
After 2016, anyone who believes in polls is a fool.
Believing is one thing. Anyone who changes their behavior because of polls, I wanna meet this fucking idiot and find out what's going on in that dumb brain
The 2016 polls were not inaccurate though. They said Trump had a small chance at victory, and he pulled it off. They never said it was impossible, they just said smart money was on Hillary.
Ya, if I remember right FiveThirtyEight had Trump at around 30% chance in 2016, so slightly unlikely but not exactly a crazy longshot.
The national polling was also pretty accurate, it was the state polling that missed. Trump squeezed out wins in 4 states by a combined total of 50,000 votes. Nationally though the numbers were within their prediction.
Literally nobody wants conservative garbage in office. The party of liars and frauds always defanging enforcement of laws and regulations and everyone knows because we have been talking about it since that Liar War George WMD Bush and housing crash that he did.
Every chance we had at reigning in the psychopathic elites was thwarted by the Conservatives ONLY.
The white dudes sold half of my generation to a liar war and the other half to crippling debt. So we voted in a black man and they revolted by selling out to foreign enemies to steal an election because they got caught stealing 2000 with the Brooks Brothers Riot.
The party of garbage is being taken out and the midterms show it. Polls are garbage and we don’t answer them because we want them to look like assholes like we did during the mid terms AND 2024.
What’s their plan? Ruin our lines of communication from now until 2024 by buying and destroying media in a way that looks like incompetence.
They might go and get crazy and attack the country again OR start pretending they’re Democrats - they already do.
Look at Ron ShitSandwich. Total incompetent shit bag. And he’s only 44. Plenty of time to get worse.
remember that the trump campaign spent money convincing people to stay home in 2016. their two messages were "clinton's got this in the bag, your vote doesn't matter" and "trump and clinton are basically the same anyway". vote early and vote often, nothing is sure until after the post-election terrorism has died down.
Literally no polls matter outside of election season, people lie to them, often for protest or primary reasons. Plenty of fascists want desantis because he's a much bigger monster.
I’m just assuming Trump will win at this point, psychologically prepare myself for the absolute worst outcome currently plausible
I mistrust polls. Is this a legitimate poll or is this propaganda aimed at Biden voters? The message is that you don't have to bother voting because your choice is leading the poll. Vote anyway.
If a poll in favour of their candidate is gunna stop people from voting I doubt they were gunna vote in the first place lol
These polls are fun and all, but I don't trust them, especially a over a year out. Things can change drastically.
I wouldn't be surprised if it's the right pushing these poll reports to galvanize their own voters and make their opponents think they can relax.
When it comes to power, I don't think it's ever safe to relax.
I remember 2016. All polls are bullshit. Assume the worst and vote in anticipation of the worst case scenario.
I had my absentee ballot sitting on the dining room table for about a month in 2016. I kept on procrastinating getting it in the mail and finally remembered the day before the election. I live in a swing state 😞
I'm not sure if it was counted and take my share of responsibility for what happened next. I'm definitely not the only one who didn't take it seriously because of all the polls. Never again.
Exactly. Fuck the polls, get out there and vote.
this poll queried 900 voters. 900 people who are the type of people to respond to political polls
for reference, almost 155 million people voted in 2020
so this poll was conducted with less than 0.0006% of the voting population of 2020, and the group that responded is a particular (and biased) group. edit: for additional reference, biden received 7 million more votes than trump did in 2020, which is roughly 7,800 times more voters than were polled for this article.
ignore this completely
go fucking vote
in fact tell the next 10 people you talk to to vote as well
What sample size do ypu think would be appropriate?
in the 2016 election, tens of thousands of people were reached for some polls, and these polls all declared total victory for Clinton
so i cant answer your question directly, but i do know that one single poll of 900 people aint it
Polls exist for pundits and political analysts.
I'm still gonna be at the booth voting.
Work and stupid polls like this won't keep me way.
This is why Republicans know they have to steal the election any way they can. Polling places with reduced hours, stricter requirements for mail ballots, voter ID laws, not letting people provide water to voters waiting in line, invalidating voter registrations, etc. They want to make voting as difficult as possible.
y'all don't even make voting day a day off, literally everything America does it to stop people voting, not a democracy at all
You guys don't hold votes on Sundays?
Not where I live. It depends on the area - but Republicans everywhere are trying to make it harder to vote.
In my area, they give out stickers at polling places, so maybe they think that makes up for it not being considered a holiday...?
That's not true. Several states, including the West Coast states of Washington, Oregon and California all allow voting by mail. In Oregon, where I live, I get two weeks to fill out my ballot from the comfort of my own home while researching on the internet and watching YouTube videos telling me who to vote for.
Then I have too many beers at night and end up filling out Donald Trump every single time. God damn it. I wrote him in as my county water commissioner, and he never showed up! What a douchebag.
I'm in Florida and even we have several weeks of early voting where you can find time to cast your vote. It's still weekdays but it's a lot better than a single day.
Umm, 2016 showed us how reliable polls can be
People look at the big picture in polls(X candidate is leading in polls) and then say they're wrong when Y candidate wins, but it's way more nuanced than that.
The 2016 polls were not that far off. Hillary won the popular vote, as the polls predicted. The key states she lost, she lost by small margins within, or not too far from, the margin of error.
If you look at FiveThirtyEight's final prediction for 2016, Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning. That's between a 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 chance! But the media narrative was that Trump had 0 chance, and what happened happened.
Joe Manchin? Who looks at the gridlock in D.C. and says: "Yes, I want more of that." Ask me when someone who didn't vote against Roe v Wade decides to declare.
Joe Manchin is such an anachronism at this point. If this were 10-20 years ago, he'd just be a middle of the road Republican. Since it's 2023, he's too far left for the nazis modern Republican Party, and on the wrong side of just about every main stream Democrat issue. The only thing you can assume if Manchin runs is that he has some big donors that really want to see Trump win that will set Manchin up with a cushy job as a lobbyist.
He's not saying "I want more gridlock", he's saying "I want more of whatever personally benefits me, and I have to cause gridlock to get it, that's just fine".
VOTE VOTE VOTE
I love that the article casually includes at the end Senator Kennedy (R) La saying that Biden is getting the justice department to go after Trump to make Trump more popular and win the primary because Biden believes Trump is the only one he could beat. Just wow.
Senator Kennedy is off his rocker
He announced he was running, because DOJ informed him he was being investigated. Not the other way around.
While I'm happy to hear it, any political article calling something brutal or savage or claiming one destroys another is clearly a piece of clickbait garbage.
QubaXR SLAMS the OP
😂
Indeed. I'm glad to see a headline pouring cold water on the "no really THIS time a spoiler candidate matters!" Frenzy, but this far out from elections, I'm not sure it's worth participating in the horse race coverage by clicking it.
The part of these polls that none of these publications talk about is that 40% of voters still support this shitbag, a liar, grifter, and traitor to this country.
The GOP saw the nonreaction to an open attempt of sedition and they have not forgotten it.
They should have an old guy scrap like in family guy with Herbert and the Nazi
We are basically gonna have this with Musk and zuck
Is this the same poll that predicted a Hillary win?
Almost every poll at the time showed that everyone could beat Trump except for Hillary. The DNC is as responsible for the Trump presidency as the RNC.
Don't see this repeated often enough. Good to see
How is this myth still not dead lol
Most probabilities gave Trump like a 25% chance to win. 1/4 is a very real chance.
Do you think Trump will stay in if poll after poll continues to show him losing?
I get that he NEEDS to win if he wants to avoid prison, but can his fragile ego take losing again? He couldn't handle losing the popular vote in 2016 and he WON that election. 2020 showed how internalized he takes being a two time loser.
Trump has no choice but to stay in. It's his only hope to avoid jail.
Yes he'll stay in and yes he'll call it rigged and yes he'll do everything he can to subvert the results if he loses. Watch for trump supporters at the state and county levels, they will 100% try to refuse certification if the results do show him losing.
Makes me wonder which Republican has the best chance then. My bet is someone who is not at the lead of the fundraising pack as of yet. Nikki Haley? Chris Christie?
I mean with any luck, they have painted themselves into a corner of hypocrisy and wedge issues so heavily they can't win the presidency for another 12 years. But as we all know, Americans can't just let OK, they get restless and just vote for change for changes sake eventually.
I'm hoping literally any Republican wins the primary and then trump runs third party. He could pull a Nader for the next three elections easily, stealing a few crucial % of votes. The party deserves it for creating that monster.
Totally agree!
this is a bullshit article. poll suggest a lot of things and this poll is awful. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
A reminder that these polls assume people who support Biden are actually going to get out and vote for him.
Everyone should make sure they are registered to vote and then actually vote.
For reference, one of the best ways to track US polls is here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Seems like Manchin would be a spoiler candidate for Republicans more than Democrats. He might pull off some 'conservatives' that would rather die than vote for the 'democrat party' but also can't stomach Trump. But I'm not seeing how a potential Biden vote decides Manchin in the better option.
If he's actually serious about this I can't believe how anyone could possibly believe he is actually a democrat... It's like every single thing he does helps Republicans and the parasite donor class. I feel like all I ever read is "Manchin shoots down Democrats attempt to xyz" constantly... Hell even your comment shows how conservatives like him more than liberals. In my mind he's always been a selfish spoiler.
The polls clearly show that nobody in the US wants the theocracy the GOP is selling. Its not going to end if Biden wins or not. Go out and vote, btw.
Statistics can be used to prove anything. 3 out of 4 people know that.
Okay Homer
You missed a chance to say he is losing winning "bigly". It is not too late... :-D
Trump's first term was enough to scare off everyone apart from the diehard chucklefucks and there aren't enough of those clowns to get him a second one without some serious electoral fuckery. I just hope Biden doesn't have any health issues because a match up against Kamala Harris might be a different story..
You'd expect there not to be serious electoral fuckery? Look who we're dealing with!
I don’t believe for a second that they won’t at least try.
But can we have neither?
Why?
Because they are both terrible. I mean, don't get me wrong, if we have to choose between them, Biden is so much less harmful than Trump it's not even a choice, of course we need to vote for Biden in the general election if those are the only viable candidates. But Biden has actively opposed any climate measure sufficient to prevent the worst impacts of the crisis. Factually, Biden is actively trying to destroy civilization. He is a strong supporter of the antidemocratic and inhumane system of capitalism. He literally took away the basic human rights to organize and withhold labor from the rail workers.
Also, while this poll may give you the impression we need Biden to prevent Trump's return, it isn't true. Both the last presidental election, and this poll, are more referendums on Trump than anything. Manchin isn't an interesting spoiler to throw in - none of the dozens of voters who think Manchin is better than both Trump and Biden would care to risk letting Trump win by actually supporting Manchin. If the Democrats put forward a progressive candidate, they would do even better against Trump.
Humm… where have I heard this before?
what exactly do people who spam VOTE on every article about polls think they're contributing
Because polls like these can make people complacent. If they think they're choice is guaranteed to win, they won't bother voting.
What exactly do people who complain about people who spam VOTE think they're contributing?
Agreed with the others. Nothing is guaranteed and the only thing that matters for election results is votes. Another Trump presidency would be indescribably bad for humanity. We have to take these polls for a grain of salt and VOTE. There's absolutely nothing wrong with reminding others of this.
I'm not worried about Trump potentially winning the Republican nomination next year. He's finished. There are nowhere near enough believers in the alt-right's QAnon deep state bullshit to prop his campaign up, and anybody moderate would have turned their backs on him after Jan 6th, Mar-A-Lago and all the federal charges now coming to light.
We should be more worried about DeSantis vs Biden.
Idk where this is all coming from, because trumps numbers have only gone up compared to the rest of the Republicans and DeSantis has seen a nosedive in his numbers.
Most Republican primaries are winner-take-all. If enough clowns stay in the clown car, they will all split the anti-Trump vote and Trump can win states with 30-35% .
Trump has enough believers in the QAnon deep state bullshit to kill DeSantis' campaign. Trump knows that as long as he is running for office, all of the investigations into him will have to be more cautious to avoid looking like they're persecuting the opposition. He will run 3rd party if he loses the nomination, and he will take enough voters with him to kill DeSantis' chances in the white house
And I'm not too worried about it for those reasons.
When even Fox News are acknowledging the monster they created...
I call BS
Biden has no chance, his rapidly progressing dementia will make him unelectable. Frankly, I cannot believe dems will let him run again.
As much as people like you claim it, there's no actual evidence that Biden has dementia. And Trump is only three years younger than him if it's just about age.
Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.
Trump just doesn't seem like he has dimentia because his memory and intelligence has always been horrible, though his speech patterns and word selection are what we'd use to convince anyone we cared about they should at minimum be in some kind of special care
There's no "proof" but you can see from his public speeches that he's losing it. Trump at least shows mental clarity although he's quite old as well.
Umbra
Biden has no chance, his rapidly progressing dementia will make him unelectable. Frankly, I cannot believe dems will let him run again.
Can't tell if sarcasm or troll... That's how insane Republicans are now lol.
Seems like a troll to me. Not getting a sarcastic vibe from this comment.
He's all over this thread saying the same shit. He's an idiot.
Dude is all over the comments here spamming nonsense because they think the right wing morons they listen to are telling the truth with all their culture war rage bait they spew.
Poe's Law.
He won't remember his own name by the time the debates come up.