Elon Musk just gave another Mars speech—this time the vision seems tangible
Elon Musk just gave another Mars speech—this time the vision seems tangible
arstechnica.com
Elon Musk just gave another Mars speech—this time the vision seems tangible
24 comments
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The how is pretty solid, SpaceX has a very strong track record. The uncertainty is mostly in the when.
It is unfortunate that Elon’s state of mind has become more questionable. But SpaceX is a whole lot more than Elon and they have achieved remarkable things. Just take the Elon presentations with a boat load of salt (mostly concerning the timing) and enjoy the spectacle that SpaceX delivers. It is just ridiculous what they are aiming for and so far they seem to be able to deliver … eventually.
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so far they seem to be able to deliver
Not as far as I know, what was it? SpaceX would make space travel 1000 times cheaper! Some ridiculous shit like that, and we'd soon have tourism on Mars. You have to be on freaking mushrooms to take anything about SpaceX seriously. Somehow they got a NASA contract, and I think they are beginning to regret that.
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You left out a part in that quote, “eventually”. SpaceX have delivered on every NASA contract milestone, most (well) on time even which is unheard of in the space industry. SpaceX have fulfilled their first contract for delivering
cargohumans to the ISS and is now on their second contract while Boeing is yet to deliver a singleouncehuman to the ISS for their first contract that they got before SpaceX got their first. SpaceX delivers, and for a good price as well. SpaceX have never claimed they would make space ‘travel’ 1000x cheaper. Their goal is to make it 1000x times cheaper to lift mass to orbit. Eventually. This is the whole reason for the Starship project. They have made it 5-10x cheaper with Falcon and a working version of the current incarnation of Starship could be 50-100x cheaper. Still a ways to go, but can’t say they aren’t delivering. Nobody else comes close. Which is why SpaceX (the company) will be shooting 90% of all mass to orbit worldwide this year. China (the country) will do about 6%. All other companies and countries together will do the remainder. Why? Mostly because they are by far the cheapest and partly because they are the only ones who can launch so often. Turns out landing a rocket and using it again was a pretty decent idea.SpaceX have never claimed we would have tourism to Mars soon. Even Elon has not claimed that. At best they would claim it is not outside the realm of possibility within the next few decades.
The accomplishments of SpaceX are undisputed. Which makes it a shame to have such a negative opinion based on so little information in my view. I get a lot of joy from ignoring Elon and focussing on the progress of the company. They do remarkable things. As do others in the space industry and I enjoy following their progress as well.
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They have made it 5-10x cheaper with Falcon
Impressive if true, but have they really? I'd like to see a reliable source on that. That doesn't compare to the most expensive previously existing option, which may have been the shuttle.
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If you are really interested there are many channels on YT that cover SpaceX and/or space flight in general. The Everyday Astronaut has amazing deep dives on the technical aspects of space flight which are meant to be very accessible for a general audience. Note that he has interviewed Elon extensively several times and seems to be in good standing with him, so that might put you off. Scott Manly has a very informative channels as well and as far as I know he is not chummy with Elon. For very technical depth you could visit the forums on the website of nasaspaceflight (nothing to do with NASA, they are a groups of space enthusiasts who cover all things space). There is a ton of info and discussion there, but accessible would not be the right term to describe it.
For a bit more bite sized insight I can highly recommend Marcus House on YT. He makes a weekly 20 min video of everything new in space that week. It is surprising how much there is to cover every week.
If you have any interest in engineering and/or space at all, I cannot recommend enough to follow the progress of the Starship program in any way that suits you. The ambitions seem like pure insanity, the thing is so bloody big that every detail and number about it is just ridiculous, yet they are absolutely convinced they can get it to work. And they work on it mostly right out in the open in the middle of bloody Nowhere, Texas, so we get an amount of insight unparalleled in the history of the space industry. So even if you’re out to see them fail, it is still a lot of fun to follow, because they fail a lot and we get to see it all. Next test flight is likely to be next month. They build a full stack in about 6-8 weeks now, including all 39 required engines, so expect several more launches this year and maybe close to one a month next year. These are all test flights where they learn from failures in one flight, come up with solutions and try again in the next flight. Who knows if they will succeed, but it sure is a lot of fun watching them try. Watching 3600 tons of propellant being burned by the most powerful machine humans have ever built (by far) in about 160 seconds is a guarantee for excitement, even if they fail.
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To me it feels a bit like the movie "Don't look up", Musk has himself expressed the need for a "plan B", which is insane IMO.
And I'm not too fond of private enterprises monopolising space technology. I'm especially not fond of it being Musk, as he is becoming increasingly erratic.
I'm a SciFi buff, and I love technology, but the Starship project just doesn't seem right to me. It's the wrong thing at the wrong time for the wrong reason.-
I don’t find the description of ‘megalomaniac’ for his reasoning behind going to Mars unfair. But I don’t find his reasoning insane either. It is a ‘plan B’ plan of sorts, but on a very, very large timescale. Science says the end of humanity on earth, eventually, is a given. There is a minuscule chance we will be wiped out this century and, with increasing certainty, other opportunities up until the certain end in about half a billion years. That sounds like there is no hurry at all, and there most likely really isn’t. But there is another factor and that is that the progress of science and technology is not a given. History proves that empires fall, not a single one has endured for very long. And with the fall of empires, knowledge has been lost. A lot of it. The chances of that occurring are far greater, very likely even if we look at history, than the complete downfall of humanity. So his reasoning is that now, for the first time in history, humanity has gained the knowledge and ability to leave their own planet. And there is no guarantee at all that we will maintain that capability for long or regain it ever again in the future. So why not aim for it now while we are sure we can?
Is that ridiculous megalomaniac reasoning? Yeah, probably. But it is at least not a simple ‘we’re all going to die, we need a plan B pronto!’. It is mostly ‘why not do this incredibly exciting thing?’ in stead of ‘everyone panic, we have to do this!’.
I don’t care too much about the reasoning. What I like about what SpaceX is doing is that for the first time since Shuttle first flew, finally someone is pushing boundaries in a big way. Space has been coasting, or even regressing in some areas, since the late ‘70’s. It got so far that the US was not even able to send people up at all for 10 years. SpaceX seem to have lit a torch and said ‘let’s change that, let’s set inspiring goals and see how far we can go’. They made space exciting again. I am not the biggest fan of big corporate, but government could not have done the same thing. NASA is amazing, but they are fully dependent on congress for funding and congress does not see exciting projects for humanity, they see a job program for their home states and base their decisions (and thus the agenda of NASA) on that viewpoint. If it requires private enterprise to pick up the torch, so be it. If it requires a controversial person like Musk to make it happen, I’ll take it. For years now every step of the Starship program has made me excited like a child on Christmas morning. The more I learn about it, the more I realise how utterly ridiculous it is, the more excited I am about every step forward. The people at SpaceX who make it all happen have so much talent, knowledge and above all drive and excitement. I can easily look past the clown at the top and cheer with them for all their successes.
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finally someone is pushing boundaries in a big way.
For what purpose?
Space has been coasting, or even regressing in some areas, since the late ‘70’s.
Because it was a political game of prestige, with little practical purpose. There has been scientifically great programs, which Starship is not. Republicans banning NASA from research regarding climate change, made the space-program irrelevant to the most important function it could serve.
It's like these issues are decided by fantasts. When the Space race loses scientific focus, I lose interest. Hubble, Webb, Mars Rovers were very cool projects, with solid scientific reasoning behind them. Currently a Moon base or manned mission to Mars does NOT have much valid scientific reasoning behind it.
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To me, doing something exciting can be enough of a purpose by itself.
But if pure science is your only focus, Starship is designed to bring a volume of 1000m3 and a mass of over 100tons to just about anywhere in our system for (far) less money than for previous far more limited missions. For the cost of a single SLS launch we could send up Starship 10 ten times in fully expendable configuration (so no reuse at all), carrying a bigger and heavier payload each time. This capability can be proven next month if SpaceX manage to keep control of the ship on orbit. Nobody doubts they can control a spacecraft on orbit. Getting only the booster back, a thing they demonstrate more than twice a week with Falcon to be very capable at, will double it to 20 launches per SLS launch. There is a good chance they will be able to demonstrate that capability with Starship this year. To be fair, to get that volume and mass beyond earth’s orbit, they will need to demonstrate on orbit refueling which is a big hurdle to take.
Webb is a stunning achievement, but could have fit inside Starship with the mirror unfolded (with room to spare for several school busses … it can’t be overstated how ridiculously big that thing is). Imagine how much cheaper it would have been, leaving a huge amount of money on the table for other projects. Or imagine what a successor to Webb might be if designed for the capabilities of Starship. The volume and mass open up possibilities of using off the shelf parts, dramatically lowering cost. Engineers and scientists at NASA and all over the world are absolutely salivating at the possibilities that Starship could unlock. Even before the thing has flown a successful mission, many proposals have been written and I very much doubt that there are no projects already being worked on.
Will it be exciting to see Starship land on Mars? For sure! But what I am even more excited about is what (NASA) scientists will have come up with to stick in the damn thing, a payload volume greater than the internal volume of a Boeing 747.
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I like your enthusiasm, maybe when more is revealed, I'll be more enthusiastic?
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At least worth it to keep an eye on every once in a while I would say ;) You never know, they might just pull it off.
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I mean they are doing missions to the ISS for the US and private corpos and just recently the bandwagon mission where they flew 9 satellites which they advertise a price for at $300,000 per. The axiom missions are $55,000,000 per seat. That's not unreasonable for launches considering Artemis is $4,200,000,000 per launch ($1,050,000,000 per seat)
I guess it's just 19 times cheaper.
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24 comments