5d ago

Let’s be clear: this Conservative party is dead. Those who killed it should own up so we can move on

www.theguardian.com

Let’s be clear: this Conservative party is dead. Those who killed it should own up so we can move on | Justine Greening

Justine Greening, the former Tory MP, argues that the current Tory strategy of going after Reform voters isn't working. She seems to think the Tories should try to capture centrists instead (which is what David Cameron did, I would argue).

The party has attempted to be a “mini-me” version of Reform UK, and unsurprisingly Reform voters prefer the real thing. And this strategy’s consequential alienation of Conservative-leaning centre-ground voters has seen them head off to either the Lib Dems or Labour, or to the Green party. The party has no winning majority in any age group of voters other than those over 70. This is no basis for a successful electoral strategy for the longer term.

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The Tory party purge during Brexit doomed them. All the heavyweights were booted out and there was nothing credible left.
- The Labour purge by Starmer is doing the same.
- The centrists were booted out, yes. Philip Hammond, Kenneth Clarke, David Gauke, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Rory Stewart, etc.
  Anyway, I assume that by the next election, due to First Past the Post, there will be two main groups again. One will probably be a Trump-lite, pro-Brexit faction (either Reform or the Tories, or a pact of both maybe). The other will be a more liberal, pro-Europe faction (either Labour or Lib Dems, or a pact of them with maybe the Greens).
  I dunno, I'm a political novice to be honest, I'm just guessing.
  
  At the mo we're looking at a Reform led coalition with the Tories according to polling
  Scary times. Luckily there's still 4 years of watching the trainwreck unfolding in the US so hopefully the electorate will be put off reform. Labour also need to do a lot of work on their policy platform and messaging too
  Source
  
  The recent elections in Canada and Australia were interesting. Right-wing MAGA-lite parties were leading the polls in each country, then both ended up losing to centre-left parties.
  Who knows what will happen in the UK though. Like you say, it's years until the next election, and lots can happen in that time.
  
  what's Pred Seats, and why is it so high for reform given the small vote share?
  
  predicted seats would be what each party would get if an election were held today.
  And they'd get so many seats with such a small portion of the vote because FPTP is a shit system we've clung to for hundreds of years

35 comments