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Obama would refuse to run even if he was clearly the most likely to win. He'd be like "let me be clear, I'm going to respect the norms even if trump changed them" "our norms are more important than one election, plus I don't wanna leave Hawaii"
Thats why the Dems decide to run the Bush/Al Gore Unity ticket for 2028
Broke: Al Gore
Woke: AI Gore
Obama would 100% run just to gain the satisfaction of being the first US president to win 3 terms for the first time in decades
He does have a big ego and I'd enjoy seeing it crushed by Trump just barely beating him.
Obama has ascended to Jesus levels at this point, he wouldn't lose
Or he'd run with Harris as VP, get sworn in, and immediately resign.
He could go for beating Roosevelt's record by getting elected a fourth time and not dying three months in.