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Bulletins and News Discussion from May 6th to May 12th, 2024 - The Nagorno-Karabakh Nosedive - COTW: Armenia

Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.


Despite the predictions and assertions of various NATO-aligned commentators that Russia's influence is waning, the opposite generally appears to be occurring. ASEAN has become more strongly aligned with Russia despite claims to the contrary. In Central Asia, there has been a propaganda push to declare that countries there are "emerging from Russia's shadow", while in reality, as Bhadrakumar analyzes, Russia's significant economic growth and ongoing march towards victory in Ukraine is creating opportunities for further integration, not separation, and there are no major political shifts there in terms of Russian ties. And in Niger, Russian soldiers have now entered an airbase which once hosted American soldiers, now kicked out, and generally Russia's diplomacy and economic deals (nuclear power plant construction, military equipment, grain shipments, etc) have accelerated in Africa.

Where Russia's influence has actually seemed to decrease (outside of the West, of course) is in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh's remarkably rapid collapse in late 2023 demonstrated that Russia was not willing to escalate things in defense of Armenia to fend off Azerbaijan. One hundred thousand Armenians - most but not all of them in the region - fled in advance to avoid mass persecution, which received remarkably little attention by a West which calls itself overwhelmingly concerned with borders changing due to military action as in Ukraine. Since then, Armenia seems to be on some kind of self-annihilating bender, allured by the potential of Western military and economic deals. Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO due to its failure to protect them, and the head of NATO, Stoltenberg, visited the region in March. The West has offered up hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Armenia and is helping them "modernize their military"; given the poor track record of Western military equipment in Ukraine, one wonders why they're even bothering. RAND has advocated for a balancing act; America should, in their eyes, realize that they can't entirely remove Russia's influence but nonetheless should make inroads to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan (which is an interesting position given that Israel provided arms to Azerbaijan to help them take Nagorno-Karabakh).

A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.


The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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  • SEA Headlines

    It’s that time of the week.

    The Nation Thailand - Thai school breaks barriers, grants hairstyle freedom to LGBTQ+

    VNA - Rail route connects China, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia

    The Bangkok Post - Thai official helps steer Asean in negotiations with China

    Reuters - Indonesia's Q1 GDP growth beats forecasts, but outlook's uncertain

    CNA - China’s hybrid rice might be Indonesia’s latest solution to improving its food security, but at what costs?

    Vietnam Investment Review - ASEAN encouraged to embrace global flows

    Pattaya Mail - ‘ASEAN Plus Three’ bolsters financial safety nets amid challenges

    The Star - Leveraging China’s GDI to revitalise Malaysia’s industrial sector

    Paywalled Article

    SINCE the early 1990s, Malaysia has been exhibiting signs of premature deindustrialisation, characterised by a decline in the relative contribution of the manufacturing sector to the economy – a trait typically observed only when a country has attained the status of a developed country.

    In 2022, the manufacturing industry contributed only 23.4% to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), down from a peak of 30.9% in 1999. The main culprits behind this phenomenon are lack of quality investment, limited spending on research and development (R&D) and high dependence on imported low-skilled labour.

    These have collectively led to the country’s inability to join the high value-added segment of the manufacturing value chain.

    The Global Development Initiative (GDI) proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2021 presents a promising opportunity for resurrecting Malaysia's industrial sector via the industrialisation priority area.

    Under this priority area, the GDI aims to: enhance collaboration in worldwide production capabilities; assist developing nations in enhancing their industrial production capabilities and manufacturing standards; facilitate their seamless integration into global industrial, value, and supply networks; and expedite the process of industrialisation and modernisation.

    In the 2023 GDI progress report, published by the Center for International Knowledge on Development, the GDI has helped developing countries advance sustainable industrialisation and resolve development bottlenecks.

    This is done through three channels.

    Firstly, the GDI has established a global network of partners encompassing think tanks, international organisations and multilateral institutions, universities and industry alliances and associations. Secondly, there is strengthening of financial support and policy coordination via Chinese investments in developing countries and cooperation on Industry 4.0 as well as digital transformation. Thirdly, the GDI is supporting the training and capacity building of talent for industrialisation by drawing focus on vocational education. In a bid to revitalise the country’s industrial sector, Malaysia could leverage the GDI to attract foreign direct investment and technology transfer. Chinese investment in Malaysia's industrial parks and special economic zones could facilitate the inflow of capital and expertise, contributing to the modernisation and expansion of the industrial sector. This collaboration could lead to the transfer of advanced manufacturing technologies, ultimately elevating Malaysia's industrial capabilities and competitiveness on the global stage. Two of the 12 key challenges outlined in the New Industrial Master Plan (NIMP) 2030 are stagnating labour productivity, as well as shortage and skills mismatch among local talent. To circumvent these issues, Malaysia can proactively engage in collaborative initiatives with China to enhance skills development and knowledge transfer. By fostering partnerships in R&D, innovation and skills training, Malaysia can ensure that its workforce is equipped with the expertise needed to drive industrial growth in the era of digitalisation and automation. The NIMP 2030’s aim to expand Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) is also in line with the GDI’s focus on vocational education. A remarkable example of a successful partnership between China and Malaysia is the acquisition of Malaysia’s national car brand Proton by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group in 2017, where the two partners have made great strides in working together. Apart from elevating the brand image and sales of the local carmaker, the signing of various joint ventures, technical assistance, foreign direct investment and technical collaboration agreements between the two countries have greatly benefitted local Malaysian dealers with access to new and advanced technologies, while Chinese suppliers have found new sources of raw parts. Meanwhile, another success story is the setting up of the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park (MCKIP) in Gebeng which has attracted more than 50 international companies and created more than 10,000 jobs for locals. It is worth mentioning that of the RM11.01bil in foreign direct investment that Pahang attracted as of 2022, more than half was contributed by China. These success stories indicate that it is essential for Malaysia to strategically position itself to maximise the benefits of participating in the GDI. This involves formulating inclusive policies, streamlining regulatory processes, and addressing any potential challenges associated with the influx of Chinese investments. By doing so, Malaysia can create an environment that is conducive to sustainable industrial development while safeguarding its national interests. The potential revitalisation of Malaysia's industrial sector through the GDI is not without its considerations. It is imperative for Malaysia to carefully assess the economic, environmental and social impacts of various projects to ensure that they align with the country's long-term development goals and sustainability agenda. Additionally, robust governance frameworks and transparency measures should be put in place to mitigate the risks associated with large-scale infrastructure and industrial development efforts. In conclusion, Malaysia stands to gain substantial advantages by capitalising on the opportunities presented by the GDI. The initiative has the potential to inject momentum into Malaysia's industrial sector, address the challenges of deindustrialisation, and propel the country towards productivity-led growth. By embracing strategic collaborations with China and leveraging the GDI’s multifaceted offerings, Malaysia can position itself as a key beneficiary of the initiative and revitalise its industrial landscape for sustained prosperity.

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