Bulletins and News Discussion from March 4th to March 10th, 2024 - The Coalition of Losers - COTW: Pakistan
Image is of a protest in Pakistan after the attempted assassination of Imran Khan in November 2022.
What a clusterfuck of an election.
Imran Khan, the previous official Prime Minister of Pakistan, was removed by the command of the United States in April 2022 in a no confidence motion. This made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move. Imran Khan and his supporters have protested since then against the Pakistani state, which is more-or-less governed by the military despite the furnishings of civilian rule. This has ranged from largely peaceful protests to trying to burn down and occupy houses and headquarters.
It was assumed by the Pakistani elite that they could make the problem go away by arresting Imran Khan and effectively forcing many PTI candidates to run as independents while hounding them with police raids and stopping them from campaigning - and adding salt on the wound by disabling social media access and mobile services on the day of the election to make it more difficult to co-ordinate. Fortunately, these people don't seem to quite understand how the internet works in the current day, and so Khan's supporters started up WhatsApp groups and improvised websites and apps to spread the word about which candidates to vote for, leading to Khan's party getting the plurality, though not the majority, of votes in the election.
This has created a rather depressed mood in the Pakistani elite. A coalition of eight parties joined together, obviously excluding the PTI, but this coalition is shaky and lacks much legitimacy, with two major parties inside it, the PML-N and PPP, being ideologically opposed on several issues. It has been regarded as "the coalition of losers" by Khan's supporters. The new Prime Minister is Shehbaz Sharif, who also ruled from April 2022 until August 2023 and is the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif, who served as Prime Minister three times before in the last few decades. With inflation at 30% and the economy greatly struggling, there are fears that things may only stay together for months, not years, before the coalition fragments and something else has to be done.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Pakistan! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
If I ever want to feel better I just search “Nickel” and “Indonesia” online and see the massive amounts of cope from the West and the snarky responses the Indonesian government made towards the IMF and WTO.
Having read the Jakarta Method, I always find it kind of shocking when I see modern Indonesia acting in an independent way that undermines Western hegemony, but especially stuff like this where they're partnering with the largest communist state on Earth.
IIRC they have museums to educate their citizens about the dangers of sneaky communist traitors right? Like are they not extremely anti-communist? Obviously material concerns take precedence over ideological nonsense, but is there not a huge backlash from a large segment of the population over working closely with China?
Pardon the long response, but you ask a good question that must be answered to actually understand Indonesian affairs.
To put it simply,
understanding Southeast Asian relations with China requires understanding and knowing history.
It is incredibly short-sighted to restrict yourself to the Cold War period when generations of Southeast Asians have grown with learning about hundreds and thousands of years of their history, which is reflected in government officials speeches.
The first error is thus mistakenly viewing Indonesian history to something akin to US history, that of consisting only about 3 centuries of overwhelming violence and occupation. Although a unified Indonesia with it’s modern-day borders is obviously quite a recent and colonial invention, the actual people on the ground was born into a civilisation that predates the nation-state for millennia. There have been chinese settlers in Southeast Asia for about a millenium ( hat we know of), and Southeast Asia was part of vast trade networks that stretched across the entire Indian Ocean for as long as it existed. Indonesian foreign policy is guided by such history, both good and bad, and it’s reflected in the idiosyncrasies and contradictions you find today.
How we conducted trade, how we syncretised indigenous beliefs with Hinduism, Buddhism and Islam, how we socially organised ourselves, how we managed to sustain cultural diversity, how we interacted with China and India, are all woven into the social fabric of our societies. Colonialism was and continues to be awful - there are many glaring issues at hand, but just like how you can’t talk about India without understanding 4000 years of the caste system, you can’t talk about (maritime) Southeast Asia without also learning it’s history and peculiarities.
The second error is to say that after the 1965-66 mass killings Communism or any trace of socialism was wiped from Indonesian culture. We both know that isn’t possible. Dialectics tell us things continue to change and progress forward, it never remains static or goes backwards.
This can be seen from the simple fact that Indonesia is a republic - something that Malaysia and Brunei never achieved. This was directly because of the anti-colonial movements that violently retaliated against the collabarator feudal classes. Aspects of that revolutionary culture continue to live on, that even the “New Order” could never properly dislodge, like Non-Alignment, or self-guided industrialisation.
58 years have gone—as dialectics tells us nothing is permanent, everything changes. Changes really have occurred, despite the wishes of those who governed Indonesia at the time. The fear and horror that once seemed to have penetrated even into the subconscious of the older generation (also called “the generation of victims”) and which, to a certain extent, still infect the younger generation, are beginning to fade little by little. We can say that, from the 2000s onwards, young people, even if they have sometimes been contaminated by fear, have increasingly wondered what they should we be afraid of and why. Who were the real “bad guys”? The PKI or those who killed, imprisoned, tortured the PKI and even non-PKI members, the innocent man in the street? And what about their own parents—often a very painful issue—what role exactly did they play in this carnage? Were they the victims or the executioners? These young people no longer see communism as a terrible thing, like a ghost. They want to understand what really happened, they want to understand their history, the history of their country and the history of their own family. Who was Bung Karno [Sukarno] and why did he need to be overthrown, and by whom? By the communists, or rather by the imperialists? What was his relationship with the Non-Aligned Movement and in particular with communist countries such as the Soviet Union, China, as well as other third world countries? What were his relations with the PKI? Why, despite great pressure from the military and Suharto himself, did Sukarno not want to ban the PKI? Finally, who exactly were the PKI members?
The third and final error is to project the specific forms of colonialism and capitalism found in the peripheral regions of Africa, West Asia and Latin America, onto Southeast Asia. There are aspects of capitalist dependency you can find in SEA, like in the Philippines, but Indonesia’s unique history meant that it was always able to chart it’s own waters.
The nature of the colonial-capitalism found in Indonesia, coupled by the aforementioned socialist movements that sought to reform the material conditions, lead them to pursue a much more independent path to modernization, riddled with it’s own contradictions.
This isn’t necessarily peculiar to Indonesia either, Malaysia also has quite a similar history. Vehemently anti-communist and yet one of the most pro-China member-states of ASEAN, even more-so than Indonesia.
This (seemingly) apparent contradiction has been utilised by many internal political factions for their own gain.
In the end, the masses are a practical bunch and they will never fall into the ideological dogmatism of individuals. If you have a neighbour that was in a similar spot as you, homeless, but now not only owns a house with the mortgage fully paid but also being completely renovated and offering you tips on how to be in the same spot as him - would you refuse?
The ruling class may have its ideologies, but they know their rule is supported in part by maintaining some legitimacy from the masses. And when the masses see their neighbour installing efficient 40% solar panels on their green roofs while theirs is falling apart leaking water into the attic, something must change.
Sri Lanka has a similar situation. It claims it is socialist in its name and constitution, and had very very close ties to the USSR and eventually Soviet-Bloc India. However the country was deeply anti-communist and actively fighting against ML guerillas while tacitly working with the Soviet aligned communist party while at times banning said party and blaming them for the government's Anti-Tamil pogroms.
A lot of South East Asian foreign affairs is still influenced by the Sino-Soviet split