Bulletins and News Discussion from February 12th to February 18th, 2024 - The Prodigal Failson - COTW: Brazil
Image is of Brazilian chuds storming the National Congress building in opposition to Lula winning the election, on January 8th, 2023, in their remarkably even shittier version of the January 6th events in America.
Bolsonaro, who is in the tragic category of pro-US South American leaders who are so awful and uncharismatic that even they can't get the US to help them overthrow a democratically elected left-ish government, has recently been facing that most elusive of things in this current world order: consequences for his actions. Bolsonaro and his friends have been under investigation by the police, and his passport has now been seized, meaning he is unable to leave the country. Alongside the man himself, the leader of the Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, has been caught up in searches and investigations. Brazilian Army Colonel Bernardo Correa Neto, a former aide to Bolsonaro, was very recently arrested upon his return to Brazil from the US, as well as another colonel.
Lol, they are really fucked. Iirc, this is a municipal election year in Brazil, Bolsonaro can't campaign publicly, he can't promote his candidates. The leader of his party is currently in prison. And even if he is released from prison, they are forbidden to communicate with each other. The high-ranking members of the Liberal Party are pretty much fucked because they can't communicate with each other and getting support from Bolsonaro could be very bad, as left-wing candidates will exploit the fact that Bolsonaro will probably be imprisoned for planning a coup.
The FBI seems to have concluded its investigation into Bolsonaro's money laundering scheme in the US and handed over its findings to the Brazilian Federal Police, I don't think Bolsonaro can even go to the US anymore, or any other country. And it could get even funnier, there is a very small chance of the Liberal Party being banned and all its seats in congress and the senate being transferred to other politicians, many of whom, even if they are conservative, will be much more favorable to Lula's social and economic reforms, as it has been proven that Bolsonaro used the party to finance the coup.
The Country of the Week is Brazil! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Russia has always supported the Palestinian aspiration to create an independent state within the borders prior to the 1967 Six-Day War.
On Friday, Russia announced a reconciliation meeting in Moscow between the main Palestinian factions, from the secular Fatah party to the Islamist movement Hamas.
"We have invited all Palestinian representatives, all political forces... There will be 12 to 14 organizations," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said, adding that the meeting will take place between February 29 and March 1-2.
Bogdanov emphasized that Moscow has sent invitations to groups that are part of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), but also to others such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad movement.
He stressed that the aim of these consultations is to pave the way for Palestinians to unite politically, noting that for Moscow, the PLO remains "the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people."
Representing Hamas will be its political bureau member, Musa Abu Marzouq, announced Abdel Hafiz Nofal, Palestinian ambassador to Moscow. Fatah will be represented by Azzam al-Ahmad, a member of the PLO executive committee.
The Islamic Jihad movement also accepted the invitation to participate in the intra-Palestinian consultations. The President of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), Mahmoud Abbas, urged Hamas this week to "quickly complete" an agreement to exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners to prevent "the evils of another catastrophe" in Gaza and a massive displacement of Palestinians similar to that of 1948.
In the current war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza - the second longest in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 1948 - nearly two million Palestinians in the Strip have been forced to evacuate their homes as the Israeli offensive advanced in response to the brutal attack by the Islamist movement on October 7 against its territory.
Russia has been waiting for a visit to Moscow by Abbas, whose influence in the mediation process between Israel and Hamas is almost nil, as it does not act as an interlocutor nor has direct control over Gaza, where Hamas ousted the PNA from power in 2007.
Weeks ago, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov had expressed hope of bringing together representatives of the main Palestinian organizations in Moscow soon to overcome their divisions.
Similar reconciliation consultations took place in 2019 and 2017, when Fatah and Hamas demanded that Abbas form a national unity government.
Russia has always supported the Palestinian aspiration to create an independent state within the borders prior to the 1967 Six-Day War, with its capital in East Jerusalem and in accordance with UN resolutions.