Bulletins and News Discussion from February 12th to February 18th, 2024 - The Prodigal Failson - COTW: Brazil
Bulletins and News Discussion from February 12th to February 18th, 2024 - The Prodigal Failson - COTW: Brazil
Image is of Brazilian chuds storming the National Congress building in opposition to Lula winning the election, on January 8th, 2023, in their remarkably even shittier version of the January 6th events in America.
Bolsonaro, who is in the tragic category of pro-US South American leaders who are so awful and uncharismatic that even they can't get the US to help them overthrow a democratically elected left-ish government, has recently been facing that most elusive of things in this current world order: consequences for his actions. Bolsonaro and his friends have been under investigation by the police, and his passport has now been seized, meaning he is unable to leave the country. Alongside the man himself, the leader of the Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, has been caught up in searches and investigations. Brazilian Army Colonel Bernardo Correa Neto, a former aide to Bolsonaro, was very recently arrested upon his return to Brazil from the US, as well as another colonel.
From the Hexbear South American correspondent (a position I just made up), @Redcuban1959@hexbear.net:
Lol, they are really fucked. Iirc, this is a municipal election year in Brazil, Bolsonaro can't campaign publicly, he can't promote his candidates. The leader of his party is currently in prison. And even if he is released from prison, they are forbidden to communicate with each other. The high-ranking members of the Liberal Party are pretty much fucked because they can't communicate with each other and getting support from Bolsonaro could be very bad, as left-wing candidates will exploit the fact that Bolsonaro will probably be imprisoned for planning a coup.
The FBI seems to have concluded its investigation into Bolsonaro's money laundering scheme in the US and handed over its findings to the Brazilian Federal Police, I don't think Bolsonaro can even go to the US anymore, or any other country. And it could get even funnier, there is a very small chance of the Liberal Party being banned and all its seats in congress and the senate being transferred to other politicians, many of whom, even if they are conservative, will be much more favorable to Lula's social and economic reforms, as it has been proven that Bolsonaro used the party to finance the coup.
The Country of the Week is Brazil! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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"It's a huge effort," Rear Adm. Marc Miguez told Business Insider during an interview on the Ike in the Red Sea this week. "We're going at it constantly," he said, adding that the crew is "launching airplanes every hour to hour and a half."
Dozens of planes may take off from the carrier during a typical day, which can include multiple launch and recovery cycles over a period that can last up to 12 hours, if not longer. [...]
The aircraft can be tasked with various missions once they're airborne, from training to defending commercial vessels and US Navy ships from Houthi attacks. They always have to be ready to strike rebel assets in Yemen if needed, Capt. Marvin Scott, the commander of the Eisenhower's carrier air wing, said.
Preemptive strikes, which are aimed at effectively eliminating Houthi missiles and drones before they can even become a threat to international shipping lanes, have become a regular occurrence in recent weeks. Before this shift in tactics, the US spent months shooting down Houthi threats in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden after they had already been launched by the rebels.
US Central Command has announced preemptive military actions on multiple occasions over the past few days. These have destroyed a handful of unmanned surface vessels, which are drone boats that can be packed with explosives, and anti-ship missiles.
So it seems that after one of the US ships intercepted an anti ship cruise missile launched by the Houthis using it's CIWS, after it evaded interceptor missiles, the US has been forced to change tactics. CIWS is a last line of defence, a missile intercepted by CIWS is a few seconds from landing a direct hit on a ship, and can still land an indirect hit, or spray shrapnel all over the targeted ship. CIWS cannot be relied on to continuously intercept missiles, it's a last line of defence. So the US now has to have jets in the air 24/7, to take down any missiles Ansar Allah/the Houthis are about to launch against US Navy ships, before they are launched from their launch sites. This has to be done because US Navy ships cannot rely on their air defence and missile interception systems to intercept the missiles anymore. Ansar Allah has figured out a way to bypass that layer of defence on occasion. I predicted such a change in tactics a few weeks ago.
This is going to be a very costly exercise for the US Navy. Ansar Allah can also use this change of tactics to manipulate the US Navy, for instance by putting out some defunct warheads or missiles, or fake/"blank" missiles, which the US Navy will be forced to launch airstrikes at to ensure the safety of their ships. I'd consider this a strategic win for Ansar Allah here, the US Navy now has to waste millions of dollars to launch airstrikes against potential fake missiles to ensure that their Navy is safe. Yes the US still has the overwhelming force advantage, but at what cost?
This is going to be a very costly exercise for the US Navy. Ansar Allah can also use this change of tactics to manipulate the US Navy, for instance by putting out some defunct warheads or missiles, or fake/"blank" missiles, which the US Navy will be forced to launch airstrikes at to ensure the safety of their ships.
As another megathread commenter noted in a previous thread, the warhead is the cheapest part of an anti-ship missile and you might as well put them on every single one because what if it gets through and just puts a dent in the side of a ship?
Sounds like a smart bitch
Millennium challenge 2002 here we come
at what cost
The American MIC is hoping it can get to an official $1 trillion dollar budget even faster.
This is so bleak. The only success Ansarallah have against the US military are the increasing costs which are shouldered by the US poor while the MIC profits greatly
If the people of america don't like the situation their oppressive government has put them in they should just revolt.
the sanctions work stance
Who runs out of missiles first, the guys who have to shoot every single thing that looks like a missile or the guys who have to shoot a missile at everything that looks like a commercial boat connected to israel?
Ansarallah welding fins and cones onto water pipes and leave them lying around while the US navy spends $10s of millions and having panic attacks.