Bulletins and News Discussion from December 4th to December 10th, 2023 - The Legacy of Kissinger - COTW: Laos

The US is scrambling to avoid another foreign policy crisis — this time in Congo

The U.S. drew up a multi-part deal for Congo and Rwanda to deescalate fighting between their forces. Democratic Republic of the Congo youth get the first steps of basic military training in Goma, eastern Congo, Monday, Nov. 7, 2022.

Democratic Republic of the Congo youth get the first steps of basic military training in Goma. Fighting in the eastern part of Congo has dragged on for decades.

A top U.S. intelligence official presented a detailed proposal to the leaders of Congo and Rwanda last week for a pact to reduce fighting in eastern Congo — and promised to help enforce the deal.

The leaders largely signed off on the U.S. plan, which included commitments for Rwanda to pull back its forces and offensive military equipment by Jan. 1 and for Congo to ground its drones, according to a readout of the meetings.

The readout shows that the U.S. is playing a much more active role than previously disclosed in trying to calm tensions in the increasingly volatile region, where conflict between Congolese forces and rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda is threatening to escalate into all-out war between the countries.

The Biden administration previously said that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines flew to the region last week to “secure commitments” from Congolese and Rwandan leaders to deescalate fighting and that they “plan to take specific steps to reduce current tensions.” But the administration did not disclose the extent to which the U.S. was designing and overseeing the plan.

Wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas are already destabilizing regions and straining global alliances. And a conflict between Congo and Rwanda could easily spill into other parts of Africa. It could also undermine U.S. efforts to counter China on the continent.

This is another region where it looks that it could escalate into a war, what happening is that for decades Rwanda has funded rebel groups and send its military into eastern congo to raid for resourses like rare earth minerals.

The main rebel groups its M23 a group made up by mainly people of rwandan decent and supported by the rwandan gov

In May DR Congo aligned groups has launch counteroffensives into the rebel held territory which has led to a humanitarian crisis.

There are also 2 big factors that could escalete the conflict, that China controls most of the business on rare minerals in congo with the US slowly trying to enter the sector which could turn this into a proxy war of some kind, and that the UN peacekeepers are leaving by the end of the year which would led to a security power vacuum.

All of this could end in the conflict escalating into war, that could escale to the size of the Second Congo War also known as the Great African War

Another thing i forgot to mention is that Rwanda biggest ally and main weapons supplier is Israel, and the rare minerals rwanda gets sold to israel too, so this is another problem the US will have to deal with, since it either pushing rwanda out and weakening israel (and making rwanda more aligned to russia) or piss off Congo and lose their rare minerals sector to China