For something to be attractive on the black market it'd have to be attractive on its own.
Cigarettes have abjectly lost that race ever since the campaign of trotting every lung cancer patient able to be found in front of the cameras was normalized.
Especially when the supposed upshot of it is something you can get for much cheaper and way less dangerously with weed.
I think chances are we are at a stage where most would-be smokers would just opt for vaping, given that while it sounds like he wants some restrictions on that as well, it doesn't like that'd be subjected to the year over year age increase?