It seems like everyone has Covid-19. Here’s why this wave is probably worse than official data suggests
It seems like everyone has Covid-19. Here’s why this wave is probably worse than official data suggests
Covid-19 certainly didn’t take a vacation this summer. Virus levels in the US have been on the rise for weeks, but it’s hard to know exactly how widely it’s spreading.
Rates of severe disease may be staying at relatively low levels, but experts agree that there are probably more infections than the current surveillance systems can capture.
“There is more transmission out there than what the surveillance data indicates,” said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. “And we should be paying attention to it, because we are starting to see an increase.”
Weekly hospital admissions have nearly doubled over the past month, including a 19% bump in the most recent week, CDC data shows. And a sample of laboratories participating in a federal surveillance program show that test positivity rates have tripled in the past two months.
There are some hopeful signs: Biobot data shows that wastewater levels may be starting to flatten, and relatively low hospitalization rates suggest that there may be a lower risk of severe disease for many.
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Physician here. The best marker we have of covid prevalence is wastewater testing. With the availability of home kits (and no reporting) and people refusing to test when symptomatic, the old markers of positivity rates and number of positive tests aren't as valid. Even hospitalization numbers can fluctuate for multiple reasons. Municipal wastewater testing truly gives a sense of covid in a population.
Covid deniers gonna start shitting in the back yard
Naw, they're going to shit in their neighbor's yard as god intended. As the golden rule states, do unto others before they do unto you.
*poo unto others before they poo unto you
Or in their septic tanks.
Which I suppose are in their back yard.
I laughed and then realized that is not out of the realm of possibility.
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What would a test have done?
Definitive diagnosis is kind of like, a thing in medicine. We like knowing what stuff is, so should things take a turn for the worse, the correct treatment can be applied. We try not to guess in medicine, or go "welp, no idea, good luck, kid!"
Did they need treatment? You test to determine treatment, otherwise don't test and stay home if you can. Testing for the sake of knowing it's harmful to society.
Clearly you know nothing about medicine or science. Or society.
Let's you know which disease you have so you can more accurately know how to protect others. If you've a cold, stay home..if you've the flu, stay in bed and isolated. If you have covidy stay isolated and get meals delivered to bedroom.with mask and use separate bathroom etc.
A test doesn't fix covid but if we don't test, you have to assume every respiratory infection is covid and that's not ideal for those with kids that get sick on average 14 times a year.
So you test so you can know if you are free to say "fuck it" and actively infect others?
No, I test to know how infective I am and what I’m infected with to limit risk to others.
Sounds like a shitty way to get data.
Don't get all pissy about it, it works great!
You should toilet sewer your whole cock. Is that a good pun
Wastewater-based emidemiology guy here. Thank you for your recognition of the field! I work at a competitor of Biobot, and what I find interesting is the article claiming Biobot data showing a plateau, as our data is showing a significant uptick over the month of August.
On a different note, the majority of funding for WBE and wastewater surveillance comes from state/federal coffers, so please ask your colleagues to write to your representatives and ask for more funding towards WBE.
Which is interesting, because at least here in Boston, we're seeing an increase, but not a huge spike: https://www.mwra.com/biobot/biobotdata.htm
That's what I've been thinking. I can't even recall the last time I heard of anyone I know taking a PCR covid test.
And that makes it challenging trying to manage behavior. I've definitely noticed a marked uptick in people I know that have gotten covid in the past couple weeks, but when I try to look at the data to validate my anecdotal experience, it's difficult to find compared to two years ago. Oregon, for example, has wastewater monitoring, but the page used to convey the data doesn't work on mobile and is confusing to use at best.
We can barely find test kits around us, and they are stupid expensive when we do find them. Like 10 bucks apiece.
If it's still running rampant, maybe the tests should still be affordable (or better yet, free).