2w ago

Asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don’t panic

www.theguardian.com Asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don’t panic

Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data

Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data

Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances

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2w ago

Asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don’t panic

www.theguardian.com /science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances

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What are the odds that if it hits the Earth it would hit Moscow? Asking for my friends.
- The impact risk corridor isn't anywhere near Russia.
  See: https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf
  Here's an image to visualise if that's more to your liking: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/2024_YR4_risk_corridor.png
  
  I'm confused how they can be so certain where it will hit but not if. I would think basically that while side of the planet is within the region of uncertainty. I guess it's probably because they can define the orbit in a plane rather precisely, but within that plane, other axes are more difficult to get precision numbers on.
  
  I guess it depends of the point of reference. I would say that looks pretty close to Russia.
  
  Impact Risk Corridor: The impact risk corridor for 2024 YR4, which is the region of Earth along which a potential impact could occur, extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia
  
  Pretty sure I am in the "survived the initial impact, now get to suffer."
- The same of it hitting Washington D.C.
  
  Sad.

17 comments