Bulletins and News Discussion from January 13th to January 19th, 2025 - From Mar-A-Lago to Nuuk - COTW: Denmark (including Greenland)

Image is of Donald Trump Jr. in Greenland, proudly demonstrating what he's learned in his standing lessons.

The imperial core is continuing the process of self-cannibalization as the interimperial wars between Europe and the US over resource and territorial control continue. Greenland, populated with less than a hundred thousand heavily exploited people, is the newest territory to fall under Trump's gaze. The main draw is the mineral resources present there, of which it boasts nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum, and much more than remains unexplored under the ice. But the ice is melting, and profit must be made. There is an additional element of wanting Arctic territory to counter Chinese and especially Russian interests and aims; Russia is increasingly eyeing the northern Arctic route as an alternative to more vulnerable routes through the Suez Canal or around Africa, and is investing heavily in icebreakers for that purpose.

However, even if Europe possessed the desire to resist American annexations - and they absolutely do not, at the end of the day - they do not even have the ability. Denmark may, to a lesser or greater extent, make angry sounds and talk about national honour or some such, but their military would be trampled underfoot by even the New York Police Department, let alone a concerted military effort by the US. If Trump wants Greenland, he will have it. This will naturally increase the grumbling in Europe about reconsidering the Transatlantic alliance, and that grumbling may, in the medium-term future, as the American Empire continues its decline, lead to meaningful results. But in the short term, Europe shall have to bear whatever Trump throws at them, for they obviously cannot now ally with Russia, who was the natural counterweight to American interests for decades before 2022.

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963 comments

Seems ukraine did big drone attack inside russia with 3 (or more?) hits. Very irresponsible from kiev regime, but nothing will dissuade russians from diplomacy efforts
- It's geopolitical chess. Russia has been planning a large scale air raid over the last week or so, so Ukraine will attack now to frame the incoming, pre planned Russian attack as a response to Ukrainian actions and recent attacks. This is happening especially with ATACMS strikes, as Ukraine does not have many ATACMS missiles left, and they are a controversial issue. Ukraine used ATACMS last night. To me that shows that a Russian attack is imminent.
  
  The very limited number of ATACMS missiles that Ukraine has left, after using most of their stocks to attack Russian forward bases within Ukraine's 1991 borders, and the remaining stocks in attacks on Russian air bases within Russia itself after the Biden announcement that Ukraine is allowed to do this, means that ATACMS now is only used in this way. As geopolitical chess pieces, to launch attacks on Russia just before Russia launches their already pre planned attack, to try reframe the narrative that Russian attacks are responses to Ukrainian actions. While the truth is that the Russian attacks would have happened anyways.
  With Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, the situation is different. Ukraine actually has substantial stocks of these missiles, but successfully launching them is difficult. Unlike ATACMS which is launched from the ground, Strom Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles are air launched, meaning that they must be launched by aircraft within range of the target. Ukraine only has one type of aircraft that can launch these missiles, their modified Su-24 bombers, with pylons and avionics from the British Tornado GR4 aircraft. The missile carrying Su-24s must also be escorted to the launch lines by Ukrainian Su-27 and MiG-29 aircraft, to try stop interception by Russian aircraft and suppress attacks by Russian air defence systems. (F-16s are not involved). With the state of Russian air supremacy, this is quite difficult. Russian vs Ukrainian air force and air defence is a substantial mismatch.