Bulletins and News Discussion from January 6th to January 12th, 2025 - The Fall of Trudeau - COTW: Canada
Image is of Trudeau and Trump together at Mar-a-Lago in November 2024. Source is here.
The Liberals, headed by Trudeau, have not been doing so hot lately. Polls have been rather poor, showing the party far behind the Conservatives, and the Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland (an outspoken apologist for Ukrainian Nazis) resigned recently, with more MPs following her lead. Trump's return to power has shaken the Canadian establishment due to his threats to impose massive tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which will have substantial economic consequences given that Canada sends most of its exports to the US, compounding the economic malaise that has affected most of the world over the last few years.
With all this bad news, there are rumors and reports that Trudeau will soon resign, ending his nine years of rule. His fall would be yet another casualty in the wave of incumbent parties falling across the imperial core, only to be replaced by more conservative parties that have very similar policies but wish to cast all blame and hardship onto minorities.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
You learn something new everyday. I was reading a China doomerism article on Naked Capitalism today which I have some issues with and won’t be commenting on, but I came across this quote supposedly from Xi Jinping:
To promote common prosperity, we cannot engage in ‘welfarism.’ In the past, high welfare in some populist Latin American countries fostered a group of ‘lazy people’ who got something for nothing. As a result, their national finances were overwhelmed, and these countries fell into the ‘middle income trap’ for a long time. Once welfare benefits go up, they cannot come down. It is unsustainable to engage in ‘welfarism’ that exceeds our capabilities. It will inevitably bring about serious economic and political problems.
This actually explains why China has been so reluctant to just give people money directly to boost consumption. Turns out this neoliberal brainrot is deeper than I thought (I have been defending Xi all this while and now I am getting disappointed) - they really believe that giving people money is bad and you can only create the money after earning the revenues from selling stuff first.
It makes total sense now why China has been struggling to boost domestic consumption since Covid and why the central bank doesn’t simply inject the money.
Because handout is bad! People will turn lazy if they get free money without work! What the fuck, China! How is this different from your typical GOP rhetoric?
Just give people the fucking money and at least half of the problems will be solved.
Reminds me of an interview I was watching where Michael Hudson was talking about the issue of CPC members (or maybe he was just talking about wealthy Chinese) sending their kids to western schools and warned that this would mean they would learn western economics and bring those ideas back home
Just last month, there was an outrage on Chinese social media when Yi Gang, the former head of China’s central bank, remarked in an interview during the Beijing-Tokyo Forum that “economically, China should not retaliate against the US economic warfare” and it sparked an outrage so bad that media reports on it have since been removed and we only got fragments of it remained on English outlet like SCMP that doesn’t quite capture the controversy:
“We all understand that, from an economics perspective, [retaliatory actions are] never a good choice,” Yi said at the annual Beijing-Tokyo Forum in Tokyo. “But there’s not much policymakers can do about that” in the face of mounting domestic pressure and rising concerns among international industry players.
…
Against such a backdrop, “as policy advisers, we should speak up for the benefits of free trade”, Yi said, calling it the easiest way to boost the world’s economic growth.
lol
These are the people who have been running the country lol. Our University of Illinois PhD alumnus certainly knows not to bite the hand that once fed him, and I’m sure he’s proud of the fact that he’s learned from the very best.
This has less to do with “bringing the ideas back home”.
This is the consequence of the reform and opening up where a society with near zero inequality reintroduces classes dynamic in less than 10 years after market introduction.
The first faction of the population who got wealth are concentrated in the coasts (or in the party) sell the meritocracy word salad to the poor so they don’t have to redistribute the plunder (aka the destruction of the northeast industry and the increasing inequality in the inland).
People need to stop blaming the “west” for the idea, this is intentional policy by the government in the 80s
I guess it depends on what they consider welfare, but that certainly sounds like a Xi and the CPC has some conservative brainworms. Do they think about healthcare along these lines? I thought most socialists agree at the very least on a floor of living standards no one should be allowed to fall under.
We don’t have free healthcare in China, although state-owned enterprise employees usually get decent benefits.
Incidentally, there was a netizen debate about free healthcare just a few months ago sparked by a Beijing University professor (Li Ling) who proposed the implementation of free healthcare to all of China. The online reaction was sort of bifurcated, with detractors going with the usual arguments about how it’s inefficient, China has too many people, healthcare quality will fall, queues will be too long, and “if the government cannot even subsidize the 400 yuan needed to finance the healthcare coverage of each rural farmer, where is the government going to find the money to finance healthcare for the whole country?”
On the other hand, there used to be a very comprehensive healthcare system under Mao. Between the 1950s-70s, there was something called the rural cooperative medical system that provided healthcare coverage to >90% of rural villages, apparently highly praised by WHO and the World Bank for its innovation to provide maximum healthcare benefit at very low cost.
However, following the reform and opening up era in the 1980s, the marketization of the economy also meant that the income growth of rural farmers could not keep up with healthcare cost. Between 1990 and 1999, the income of rural farmers had increased by 2.2 times, but the average clinic visit fee and hospitalization cost had increased by 6.2 and 5.1 times, respectively. This eventually led to the disintegration of the rural cooperative healthcare system and I believe the coverage has already fell to <10% since, and had been replaced by a newer version that supposedly is more compatible with the liberalized economy but apparently has nowhere near the comprehensive coverage as it used to have (I need to study more about this in detail).
In general, the more I dive deep into China’s economic system (especially with an MMT lens), the weirder it gets. The purchasing power parity (PPP) of China has already exceeded the US, its industrial capacity is far beyond any country has built, and yet its per capita GDP is only a fraction of the US. That means the average Chinese labor have been producing output with value that is worth far higher than what they have been receiving with their depressed wages. It is not controversial at all to say that Chinese labor has simultaneously sustained the high income consumer lifestyles of Western countries and the economic development of their own country all these years.
Why would a country ever do that except for the true believer who has complete faith in the neoclassical economic theories.
My grandparents got hospitalized and they only have 15 days before the hospital boots you out because there are not enough beds. We managed to pull strings and bride the director by tell him that my grandmother was a member of the party.
As for the walk in clinics, you can literally walk in and bride the doctor to prescribe you antibiotics.
This is in Guangzhou. There is a year where i went back where relatives of some patients who died do sit in to either: blame the hospital for stopping treatments or beg for money to continue treatments (this is before there is a “street sweeping” operation to avoid these scenes)
Welfare always struck me as a "capitalist solution to capitalist problems" that was unnecessary with a proper constitution and jobs guaranteed for all by the state; insofar as that is a warranted appraisal, a criticism of welfare is nothing more than a criticism of the various organs which keep capitalism on prolonged life-support.
That said, as China is market-socialism, it is concerning rhetoric from the leadership unless they are planning to implement a more USSR style economy in the not-so-distant future.
Which nation are we discussing? or are we talking global capitalism?
Regardless I assume you mean to say in any nation where welfare was present it is being eroded? Yes, neoliberal austerity programs were designed for that. Welfare was a temporary concession while the USSR existed to assist propaganda efforts.
To promote common prosperity, we cannot engage in ‘welfarism.’ In the past, high welfare in some populist Latin American countries fostered a group of ‘lazy people’ who got something for nothing.
I don’t get it, if he doesn’t want wealth parasites and lazy people, why is he giving welfare to the CPC high ups?
The irony is that the recent wave of anti-corruption actions, while undeniably good and long overdue, is more likely to be driven by the fact that the government needs to recoup the money stolen by corrupt officials to replenish the coffers. They still haven’t figured out that you can simply print the cash out of thin air.
With the Chinese Government attempt to adopt Centralized electronic currency, there will be less and less excuses to not fix the corruption within the party or any private businessmen since you can monitor/drain their accounts
If the trend of not having the will to fix the economy persists, Going into the great hall of the people and start blasting anything inside might be a reasonable fix to corruption.
welfare does nothing to solve the systemic issues of poverty in capitalism. give a man a fish ect. the real question comes down to 'but are we giving enough people the equal oportunity to learn to fish, and sustain themselves on that'. reducing absolute poverty has been a step in that, but we will just have to wait and see how far it goes in terms of absolute abundance to live well not just survive
Why can’t the government just print the money and give it to the people to spend?
Consumption has been subdued since Covid because people have become increasingly worried about the uncertainty of the future (it is a trait in the Chinese society to save for the rainy day especially during uncertain times).
And you know what is going to assuage them of this fear? Just give people, especially poor people, the money to spend so they can stimulate the demand and drive the local economy.
But…. but…. this would violate sound market principles! We are not being a “good country” if we spend more deficit than 3% of the GDP - we could lose our trustworthiness and our reputation of spending responsibly, that will scare away investors! Meanwhile, the US deficit spent 7% of its GDP in 2023 alone and blatantly violating the “rule” it set for other countries lol.
It’s almost laughable how fiscally conservative the party can be.
Just because during the reform era the market dynamics managed to generate wealth for a group of people doesn’t mean that the same conditions is applicable in one generation, yet their solution seems to be to ask the youth to slave themselves in a cubicle to get a portion of social mobility that their parents get.