Bulletins and News Discussion from October 7th to October 13th, 2024 - Happy International Paragliding Day!

How Might Iran React to a Major Israeli Attack?
https://xcancel.com/SinaToossi/status/1843368522224685197

Iranian officials, media, and analysts close to the government have been signaling potential responses to an Israeli strike on Iran.

They are heavily emphasizing Israel's small size and its vulnerable critical infrastructure, such as oil and gas fields, power plants, refineries, desalination facilities, and the Dimona nuclear reactor.

The message they intend to signal is clear: if Israel targets key Iranian infrastructure like its oil facilities, Iran will retaliate in kind, potentially crippling Israel's economy.

For example, one Iranian analyst highlighted the following energy vulnerabilities in Israel:

🔻"Oil and gas contribute approximately 39% and 42%, respectively, to Israel's energy mix, with more than 80% of its total energy supplied by a few key facilities, making the regime vulnerable to military attacks.

🔻"In 2023, Israel imported 225,000 barrels of oil per day, 60% of which came from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. The imported oil is processed at two refineries: Haifa and Ashdod.

🔻"Israel’s gas production and consumption in 2023 were 23.5 and 12.6 billion cubic meters, respectively, with surplus gas exported to Egypt and Jordan. The regime’s gas production is heavily reliant on the Leviathan and Tamar fields, which contribute equally.

🔻"Israel’s gas infrastructure is so vulnerable that the destruction of a single gas field would halt its exports to Egypt and Jordan. If both fields were destroyed, 42% of Israel’s total energy supply would be eliminated."

There is also much more open talk of potential nuclear breakout in Iran currently.

Notably, Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder Ayatollah Khomeini, and a figure known for his moderate and pragmatic stance, recently suggested that Iran may need to build a nuclear weapon while simultaneously expressing support for negotiations.

Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, during a his Friday prayer sermon, stated that Iran's October 1 missile strike was the "minimum" of its capabilities to “punish” Israel.

Concurrently, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has been traveling the region, continuing to push for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and call for de-escalation.

All this is to say, Iran is clearly preparing for various scenarios.

If Israel responds with significant force, particularly targeting Iranian infrastructure, Iran is likely to counter-escalate proportionally, potentially spiraling the situation into full-scale war.

However, if Israel's response is more measured and largely superficial—amplified in the media to manage Israeli public perception—escalation might be avoided, at least temporarily.

Nonetheless, tensions are unlikely to fully subside until the wars in Gaza and Lebanon reach a conclusion.