Bulletins and News Discussion from September 23rd to September 29th, 2024 - The War In The North

Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.

The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.

Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.

I don't know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.

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The marches led by the former president of Bolivia, Evo Morales, are advancing in the country. The march has already lasted six days and clashes with followers of President Luis Arce have increased. Arce denounces a coup attempt by Evo.
8 people have already died. The march, according to Evo Morales, is for justice and freedom. The former president of Bolivia accuses his former Dauphin of being a traitor, after breaking with the movement linked to him, and taking over the leadership of the party.
Morales accuses Arce of being behind the decision that banned him from running in the 2025 elections. Bolivian President Luis Arce, together with his vice-president David Choquehuanca, announced on national television that they have accepted the invitation of the Defender of the People, an independent office in Bolivia, for an unconditional dialogue with former president Evo Morales.
The dialog would be an attempt to end a political crisis that arose internally within the Movement towards Socialism (MAS) after a rupture between Arce and the former president of Bolivia, Evo Morales.
We will see what kind of agreement Arce and Evo will make. I really hope they end this crisis and choose a strong leftist candidate for the next election.
- My vibes-based bias is towards Morales, his ability to mobilize, and against the government's limitations on who runs. But I don't know enough to be confident. Do you have a read on where the most shenanigans are?
  
  Do you have a read on where the most shenanigans are?
  Mostly around La Paz (Capital, Sucre is the Judiciary Seat) and El Alto (near the Peruvian-Bolivian-Chilean Border).
  
  Oh sorry I asked a very unclear question. I mean do you have a read on which camp (Morales vs Arce) has more shenanigans?
  
  Ah, you mean which side is based and which side is cringe? I believe Evo represents the radical faction of the MAS party (meaning mainly that he is very pro-native, pro-China, anti-US and democratic socialism), while Arce represents the more moderate/pragmatic faction of MAS (meaning that he is anti-racist, pro-China, but pragmatic when it comes to dealing with the US and Brazil, he is practically a SocDem and follows very similar political points to Lula da Silva).
  Both are leftists, but I think Arce's faction appeals more to the Bolivian Bourgeoisie with slow changes for the working class, while Evo's faction focuses more on faster radical changes for the working class. Evo has also been criticized for these actions by some radical leftists, because they see it as splitting the left movement in two, and because some people see that Evo is doing this because he doesn't trust anyone else to be the leader of the left/president of Bolivia.
  Arce is criticized for being pragmatic, for the economy not doing so well thanks to Covid-19 (Arce actually did very well with vaccines, he gave them quickly and for free thanks to China, but due to the social conservatism of the population, many people didn't get vaccinated, which had an economic impact), and there is the problem of the forest fires that are happening all over South America (probably caused by the extreme right and organized crime, as seen in Brazil) which has had a negative impact on Arce's popularity and the economy.
  
  Thank you! This is very helpful for getting initially oriented until I do some proper reading.
  wrt folks that say Evo is splitting the party, do you know what are the takes on Arce calling their marches and blockades an attempted coup?
  
  wrt folks that say Evo is splitting the party, do you know what are the takes on Arce calling their marches and blockades an attempted coup?
  From what I understand, Evo and his supporters held a party congress but Arce and his VP refused to be present there. Evo got angry and kicked Arce and the VP out of the party. Evo also kicked out everyone that is part of the goverment and 28 MAS MPs that supported Arce. Then Evo with his supporters voted himself as the MAS presidential candidate for the 2025 elections. Evo excuse was that by not being present, Arce had renounced his position within the party. This faction is called the Radicales (The Radicals) and is led by Evo and Elizabeth Paco.
  Arce refused to recognized that he was kicked out of the party, Arce and his supporters created their own faction called the Bloque Renovador (Renewal Bloc). And this faction voted Arce as MAS presidential candidate. Some months after this, the Supreme Court of Bolivia voted against Evo, saying he couldn't run for president again because he reached the limit of terms one can held as President. And since Evo's referendum failed in 2019, he didn't have constitutional support for that.
  I think Arce is calling this a coup attempt, because Evo is pressuring Arce into doing what Evo wants. Which is to let him run for president and support him as candidate (not to say Arce doesn't have problems. Most people probably were happier during Evo's era since the economy was doing much better than before, and the country was much more stable, Bolivia is known for its coups d'état, and is the country that has had the most coups d'états in history. There's even a joke about Bolivian exiles in the US, who say they should keep their New York subway ticket card, as there will probably be another coup and they'll be expelled again).. Which even Álvaro García Linera (Evo VP, Guerrila Fighter, Leftist and member of the White Bolivian minority) criticized, both of them for not helding dialogues and Evo for doing this and spreading some lies about Arce that were created by the Far-Right, like how the goverment has ties with Cartels (something they also said about Evo's goverment)
  
  Ah, seems like an old-fashioned power struggle. Thank you for the detailed rundown!

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